It’s About Evolution

The Fallacy of Constants

BY JENNIFER BEYER

In the fields of economics and finance, the model of ceteris paribus “with other things the same” or “other things being equal or held constant,” helps to determine causation. In business we use modeling and strategic decision making to isolate multiple independent variables that can influence desired outcomes. 

Sometimes all the perfectly planned pieces break.

All of us, at some point in time, have experienced this moment. The moment things break. You begin wondering the country of your own memory; searching for ways you could have done something different.

Applying hindsight in this way can be dangerous. The temptation is to try and make your initial decisions make sense. The Constant Theory cannot be applied to the storms that govern our mind from moment to moment. It is the fallacy of constants that impedes our evolution.

Case in point: After a difficult project during my days at Fidelity, I called my father to get guidance. What I was really looking for was a time-machine or some way to magically reverse my decisions with the information I now had, so my project and the people impacted would be happy. The advice he gave me was more valuable than the time machine. He told me, “People plan and act with all the information they have at the time they make their decisions. This is the time to acknowledge you had the courage to make a decision and follow through on it.”

The upside to things not turning out as you planned is that you get to see the unforeseen variables that impacted your decision.

You get to analyze and learn about the elements that pushed on the targeted end state that now shape the current situation, giving way for the opportunity to have greater and broader impact on your future endeavors.

Key Elements Important for You on Your Journey:

• Honor the starting point of your original plan. By honoring that point, you can begin to understand how the different pieces played against the original decision.
• Objectively identify tactical vs strategic errors in your planning.
• There is a cost to indecision, keep evolving and taking the next step with what you’ve learned.
• Make a concerted effort to share what you’ve learned.

Photo by Riccardo Annandale on Unsplash